This is a hypothetical example of The Kidney Failure Risk Equation, a new tool designed for doctors and their patients with chronic kidney disease. It answers a common, often unspoken question that patients have: “What are my chances of requiring dialysis or a transplant?”
Using the Kidney Failure Risk Equation to Predict Progression to Kidney Failure Risk of progression to kidney failure requiring dialysis or transplantion: At 2 years: 14.8%. At 5 years: 41.2%. For patients with CKD Stage 4, we consider a 2 year risk of kidney failure of 0-10 % as low risk, 10-20 % as intermediate risk, and >20 % as high risk. About this calculator The kidney failure risk equation provides the 2 and 5 year probability of treated kidney failure (dialysis or transplantation) for a potential patient with CKD Stage 3 to 5. Predicted risks may differ from observed risks in clinical populations with lower and higher observed risks than the study population. This risk calculator was developed and validated in two independent populations of patients with CKD referred to nephrologists in Canada. Of the study population of 8,391, 57 % were men, 38 % had diabetes. Race was not reported, but most were probably white. Mean age, eGFR and urine ACR were 69, 33 ml/min/1.73m2 and 83 mg/g, respectively. The event rates of kidney failure in the two populations were 11 % and 24 % over a median follow up of 2 and 3 years. Determining the probability of kidney failure may be useful for patient and provider communication, triage and management of nephrology referrals and timing of dialysis access placement and living related kidney transplant. Prospective trials evaluating the utility of this instrument for clinical decision making have not yet been performed. Citation Tangri N, Stevens LA, Griffith J, et al. A predictive model for progression of chronic kidney disease to kidney failure. JAMA. 2011;305(15). DOI:10.001/jama.2011.451
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