Sunday, October 16, 2005

An Avian Influenza Pandemic Scenario and Other Resources

From the New York Times:

The New York Times obtained a draft of the [Bush administration's] plan, dated Sept. 30. No one would confuse the 381-page document with a screenplay, but pages 45 through 47, the section titled "Pandemic Scenario - Origin and Initial Spread," are gripping. They describe a flu epidemic moving from a village in Asia to the United States, where it causes panic and as many as 1.9 million deaths...

In April of the current year, an outbreak of severe respiratory illness is identified in a small village in a country known to have experienced recent avian influenza disease. At least 25 cases have occurred, affecting all age groups. Several household clusters with infection of multiple family members are identified. Twenty patients have required hospitalization at the local provincial hospital, five of whom have died...

In July, small focal outbreaks begin to be reported throughout the United States. The first doses of a new pandemic vaccine become available in September. Despite full-scale production by manufacturers, supply remains very limited... Community-wide outbreaks begin to occur more frequently as children return to school, and by late August, outbreaks are occurring simultaneously throughout the country...

Overall, about 2 percent of Americans with influenza illness die. In communities during the peak weeks of ... outbreaks, about a quarter of workers are absent because of illness, the need to care for ill relatives and fear of becoming infected.

Hospitals are overwhelmed and staff shortages limit capacity. Intensive care units at local hospitals are unable to provide care for all who need it, and there are shortages of mechanical ventilators for treatment of patients with severe pneumonia. Makeshift hospitals established in schools and armories care for those who are unable to be treated in regular hospitals...

And it gets worse.

Like many people, avian influenza is a topic that I've been interested in and alarmed about. See the "avian flu" link in the sidebar for more. Also see the Avian Flu Blog and H5N1.

Dr. Taraneh Razavi, a Google staff doctor, continues to use the Google blog to educate people in this post about avian influenza. (He previously wrote about deep venous thromboses in travelers.)

And here's a summary of recent news from Warren Ellis:
"In other news, at least 1000 people are dead from the Kashmir earthquake, hundreds are missing after hurricane Stan rampaged through Mexico and central America, the avian flu vaccine doesn't work, the 1918 Spanish Flu was probably avian, the arctic ice cap is melting and we're all going to fucking die."
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Pro-farmer said...

If one goes through the details of where the infection surfaced first (in a remote place not on the path of migratory birds nor on an international border close to a country with bird flu -
), why there was a rush to buy Tamiflu much ahead of an ANTICIPATED outbreak (even though other preventive measures were never even given a least consideration), who is laughing all the way to the bank (Donald Rumsfeld - ) what are his credentials ( ), one would really get a suspicion on as to why among all the news channels, only NDTV is harping relentlessly making this item a big issue. Rumours are doing the rounds that NDTV has received a huge sum (near to Rs. 500 Crores) under the mislabelling "Prime Time Advertisement Fee" for those untelecast advertisements of Rumsfeld & Co.

Rumsfeld has strategically scared the US, using all other countries as baits. US is a country where 2 lakh patients are hospitalized with Flu and 36000 of them die - without bird flu but by ordinary flu. So it could be a nightmare to induce Bird Flu strain there, because Rumsfeld could be the first casualty - and what for that money if you cant screw it around; rather it screws you!!

So, Rumsfeld & Co have started planting the infection in other select countries - like China, India, Thailand etc. - the third world economies. Their economy would also suffer. They could be pursuaded to buy TamiFlu. And, when they buy, you need not pressurise the naturally susceptible country - The US of A. Hatsoff, Rumsfeld, to your pervert intelligence.

But, NDTV has a duty to the Nation - that it should not forget. The Countrys farmers are suffering with agony because of the scareplan hatched out by NDTV and Rumsfeld together. The country is loosing more than 200 Crores everyday. So far there are no human deaths due to bird flu in India (except the suicide of a farmer who went bankrupt) If NDTV does not stop this scaring tactics - then soon it would be reporting the suicide of farmers and farm workers - probably branding them as BIRD FLU DEATH.............. what a shameless sin. My request to NDTV is to stop pretending that the Fourth Estate is above all, all the way making immoral money geopardizing the lives of over a million people

Healthcare said...

Regarding the avian flu.It's like SARS all over again.
The avian flu is turning into a new excuse for the media
and politicians to over-hype an issue and inspire fear in
the general public. When SARS broke out, people were
paranoid, fearing an extremely deadly worldwide
outbreak even though you had a better chance of dying
from falling down the stairs or being kicked in the head
by a donkey than by catching SARS.